war games cA study conducted by a Washington think tank found that the US military could successfully defend Taiwan against a hypothetical Chinese invasion – albeit at the cost of vast amounts of manpower and materiel.
The Center for Strategic and International Studies has held 18 out of 22 planned simulations of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan in 2026, during which the United States has said it will devote its armed forces to defending the island Bloomberg. Retired US generals, admirals, and former Pentagon officials commanded China, the red team, and an American-Japanese-Taiwanese alliance, the blue team. The latest of the advanced war games used a 20-sided dice and complex computer calculations, according to the company Wall Street Journal. The results of every game so far have shown a Pyrrhic victory for the US-led alliance.
“The results show that in most, if not all, scenarios, Taiwan can repel an invasion,” said Mark Cancian, a senior adviser at CSIS. “However, the cost to Taiwan’s infrastructure and economy, as well as to US forces in the Pacific, will be very high.”
AIR FORCE WAR GAME SIMULATION WITH CHINA ENDS TERRIBLE
Though the wargamers didn’t calculate an exact number as to the total casualties and economic cost, the other costs suggest it would be astronomical. In the most recent iteration, which spanned a month-long war, the US lost two multi-billion dollar nuclear aircraft carriers, a large portion of the US and Japanese surface fleets, and 900 of the US’s most advanced fighter/attack aircraft – about half of them Air Force and Navy inventory. These losses would greatly diminish America’s global standing for years to come. China lost 150 ships, sealing its defeat.
Chinese long-range ballistic missiles decimated US bases in Japan and Guam, giving the red team an initial advantage. However, resilient Taiwanese forces managed to pin Chinese troops on the island and prevent them from capturing the capital, Taipei. Relentless US submarine, air and missile attacks are limiting China’s ability to rebuild its invasion force. The Chinese were only able to conquer a third of the island before giving up defeat.
Although David Ochmanek, a senior researcher at RAND Corp., narrated Bloomberg The results of the war games were consistent with what he’d seen before, he noted last year: “Whenever we war-ready a Taiwan scenario over the years, our blue team routinely got our hands on their a** because in In this scenario, time is a precious commodity, and it plays to China’s strength in proximity and capability.” Last year, an Air Force war game simulating a U.S. war with China over Taiwan resulted in a disastrous U.S. defeat.
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Several US commanders were quoted by the Wall Street Journal as speculation that 2027, the 100th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Liberation Army, could be a possible date for a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.
China displayed its capabilities as the Games unfolded by holding massive live ammunition military drills around Taiwan and simulating a future invasion of the island, around the same time House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) told her paid a visit.